Geopolitical Problems: Kuwait’s International Political Risks
Primary Analyst: Taimur Mumtaz
Team Leader: Duncan Spilsbury
Kuwait is situated in a complex geopolitical quagmire, caught between two regional powers: Saudi Arabia and Iran. This position makes it susceptible to become a victim of terrorism and regional sectarian conflict. However, given Kuwait’s influential voice in the global community, it possesses the ability to overcome many of the risks that it faces.
Iran
Kuwait’s close relations with fellow members of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) is reflected in its adoption of a more combative posture towards Iran. Kuwait’s security agencies have been closely monitoring Iran’s desire for regional hegemony and its efforts to destabilize the country. The increasing concern that Iranian-linked Shia armed militia’s pose to Kuwait’s security can be exemplified with is expulsion of all Iranian diplomats for their alleged connection to an Iranian-backed terror cell Al Abdali, operating within its borders. However, the implementation of a heavy-handed approach runs the risk of alienating the broader Shi’ite population, thus further exacerbating the problem of sectarianism and the destructive repercussions that come with it. Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz poses crippling implications given Kuwait’s oil exportation. Its heavy reliance on maritime transport (crude oil exports: 2,218,200 barrels/day, petroleum product exports: 707,400 barrels/day) entails that access to its main oil export destinations (South Korea (15%/$8.03B), China (13%/ $6.94B), India (11%/$5.73B)) would be severed.
Qatar
Although Kuwait has assumed a mediating role in the ‘Qatar diplomatic crisis’, the scenario threatens to hinder OPEC decision making policies and the regional exportation of oil. The abrupt decision for Saudi, Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt to cut off diplomatic relations and blockade its former ally has pushed Qatar to bolster its relations with Iran. With the worlds fourth and fifth largest oil reserves, Iraq and Iran retain the largest output for growth potential and, with the addition of Qatar, can pose a grave challenge to Kuwait’s dominant position in the oil and natural gas industry.
Terrorrism/ISIS
The 2015 bombing of the Imam Sadiq Mosque by ISIS which killed 27 and injured 227 showcases the pertinent threat that terrorism poses to Kuwait’s domestic security status. The increasing capabilities of regional fundamental Islamic terror groups combined with the 190km porous border with Iraq has made Kuwait vulnerable to the contagion of terrorism and sectarian strife. Such groups have openly stated their intention to carry out future attacks on western interests including residential compounds, oil installations, transports and popular public locations. Kuwait’s Shi’ite population (30% of the total) makes it an ideological and target-rich location for ISIS attacks.
Further to this, the U.S State Department singled out Kuwait as one of the major sources of funding for Sunni radical organizations such as Al-Qaeda, Jabhat Al-Nusra and the Islamic State. While the vast majority of the funds were donations by private citizens, Kuwait encompasses a plethora of large Islamic charitable organizations that are loosely monitored. For instance, the Kuwait Scholars Union (KSU) ran a host of fundraising drives known as the ‘Great Kuwait Campaign’ in which they raised several million dollars for munitions and fighters for the Islamic sate. Kuwait’s political vibrancy and volatility entails that the suppression of this local fundraising could ignite domestic tensions among the countries powerful Salafist politicians and clerics, ushering a period of unprecedented upheaval.
Risk Mitigation
Given the transnational nature of Kuwait’s geopolitical difficulties, there is little that can be done in terms of substantial risk mitigation in the international spectrum. Although Kuwait has assumed a mediatory role in the Qatar diplomatic crisis, the Saudi-led bloc’s reluctance to compromise entails the frivolousness of any extensive mitigation efforts.
The production and exportation of oil and gas serves as the foundation of Kuwait’s economic sanctity (60% of the GDP and 95% of its export revenues). Given this, the Kuwaiti government allocates the same level of importance as private sector entities in ensuring the protection, prosperity and longevity the industry. Given the global dependency on its oil and gas, any attempt to threaten Kuwait’s production and/or export capabilities will receive a multinational protection effort. For example, Iraq’s seizure of Kuwait’s oil fields in August 1990 was met with a comprehensive transnational effort, mitigating it in a matter of months. Therefore, any politically based maneuver by Iran to obstruct the Strait of Hormuz is (i) unlikely to occur (ii) will receive an international effort to resolve the matter. Iran’s prior effort to obstruct the oil lanes was interjected by EU based economic sanctions. Despite a 2% rise in oil prices, the oil markets remained relatively stable- a sustained blockade by Iran is not an option given the presence of the US fifth fleet within the Gulf. Thus, any Iranian threat against the sanctity of Kuwait’s oil industry can be vindicated simply by an appeal to the international community.
Although terrorism will always remain a tangible threat, recent regional efforts have resulted in the severing of terrorist capabilities to carry out attacks. With the demise of the Islamic State in Iraq, Gulf nations have been somewhat relieved of the threat that they once brought. Possible risk mitigation strategies could include heightened security for both employees and facilities. Further to this, an appeal can be made to the US garrison at Camp Arifjan for assistance regarding domestic security concerns.
