Brazil and the Presidential Election
Brazil’s Presidential Election: the Revolutionary vs. the Playboy
Understanding Brazil’s most recent election is a matter of understanding social class divides. The outcome of the electoral race was the reelection of Dilma Rousseff, a well-known revolutionary, over pro-business foe Aécio Neves. Rousseff’s electoral support came from the impoverished north and northeast regions of Brazil, while Neves maintained popularity in the centre-west, south, and southeast. In the end, Rousseff’s statist and interventionist policies that benefit Brazil’s worse-off triumphed over Neves’s free-market philosophies that appeal to big business and foreign investors.
Rousseff is respected by many Brazilians for her past revolutionary activities in overthrowing Brazil’s military dictatorship in the 1970s. However, her Marxist Guerrilla legacy was merely a soft factor in shaping her recent victory. It is believed that her reelection is a result of her ability to have portrayed her opponents as enemies of the poor who would undermine the popular Bosla Familia social welfare scheme that is heavily relied upon by the country’s impoverished regions. According to analysts, Rousseff’s predecessor Luiz Incio Lula da Silva was able to lift 40 million Brazilians out of poverty through this programme, and it is believed that approximately 36 million Brazilians continue to rely on the family allowance benefits that the programme provides. Rousseff has also also made it her initiative to make education more accessible to the families eligible for welfare, and has spent 14 billion reais to fund post-high school technical education for such recipients. Rousseff’s approach to politics is clear: provide support to the lower classes and improve public services; but how economically sound is this approach? What do middle to upper class Brazilians make of it?
Rouseff’s approach to the economy, which includes large amounts of spending on social welfare, has yet to fully be implemented. This has caused a merging of economic systems, and while these hybrid policies has shown some promise, this promise has not been enough for businesses. The hybrid system creates an instable economic climate, which has scared off potential investors and business interests in the country.
Many of Rousseff’s critics can be found backing Mr. Neves, the pro-business aristocrat known for his playboy reputation and his seven years as governor of Minas Gerais. Neves advocated for an economic management shock programme that was previously successful in the development of Minas Gerais; a region formerly characterized by debt and little investment. The new founded prosperity was achieved through the institutionalization of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) that would implement costly projects that lifted the state into modernity. In 2003 the state deficit was nearing $2.3 billion, but after year of implementing this model the state reached its target of a zero deficit. The Minas Model is an organized approach towards economic development that prioritizes transparency and yields a more neoliberal-friendly framework that is highly appealing to investors.
Despite the success of the Minas Model, Rousseff has criticized its shock tactics by suggesting that they could fuel job cuts. Neves’s supporters, however, argue that such an approach will improve the flagging economy. In addition to this, economists have recently argued that Rousseff’s subsidized loans for school education may render themselves useless, because in a weak economy the programs lead to more unemployment as the job markets will not be able to absorb the new graduates.
Rousseff’s reelection has been a victory for many Brazilians, but Neves’s loss has also left many Brazilians defeated. Investors and pro-business individuals alike can only hope for a return to economic orthodoxy, but they have little faith that Rousseff will deliver this policy shift. In fact, investors have such little confidence in her that on the day of her reelection Brazil’s currency slid to a nine-year low against the U.S. dollar with stocks dropping nearly 3 per cent. Brazil’s economy has suffered after the election, however the long term effects have yet to be realized and much can change depending on the economic policies implemented by Rouseff’s government.
