Syrian Opposition Woes
Syrian Opposition Woes
January 28th, 2015
This article has been produced by the efforts of the following members:
Craig Moorhead - Team Member studying Leadership in Syria
Both Politicians and News Sources alike often refer to the 'Syrian Opposition', or 'Syrian Rebels'; but the reality of what these terms actually encompass is far more complex and diverse than their simplicity would suggest. The Syrian Civil War has seen a myriad of non-governmental participants, from the Free Syrian Army, to the Al-Nursa Front, the now infamous ISIS or Islamic State, and many others. In its entirely, the Syrian Rebels are not a cohesive group, despite popular opinion, but a mishmash of varied brigades who differ as much in their size and structure as in their goals and objectives.
The best way to understand the "Syrian Opposition" is to ask the question: opposition to what? To the layperson, these opposition groups are all at war with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, but the reality is much more complex than that. Some of these rebel groups has risen out of opposition to ISIS, and others against the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. Despite these diverse loyalties, a large number of these groups have benefitted from the support of the United States government in terms of supplying the weapons and ammunition necessary to mount offensive operations against the Assad Regime.
However earlier this month insiders were suggesting that the Obama administrations stance on the Syrian Conflict was undergoing change; and their insistence that Assad's abdication was a condition of victory in Syria is taking the back seat to the threat of ISIS. There has been growing concern that the removal of the current Syrian government would leave a vacuum that would ultimately foster greater chaos in the region
Privately, U.S. officials concede there have been funding changes, but the Obama administration says publicly that its support of moderate rebel brigades is not waning. However as since as early as October 2014 as many as 4 of the 'US-approved' brigades, namely those operating in the North of the country, have lost the support of the US due to the perception that they had become too closely link with the Al-Qaeda. Efforts of the CIA to train and arm Syrian Rebels to fight the ground war against Assad are waning. Recent reports indicate that "entire CIA-backed rebel units, including fighters who went through the training program, have changed sides by joining forces with Islamist brigades, quit the fight or gone missing".
In addition, rebel forces in the southern part of the country which are apparently seen as more unified claim to be receiving as low as 5% to 20% of the arms requested from the CIA suggesting a significant downturn in support from the US, seemingly confirming earlier suspicions that despite consistent rhetoric the Obama administrations policy on Syria is beginning to shift. Worth noting however is that the US is offering non-lethal aid to Syrian rebel groups, notably the Free Syrian Army to whom the State Department is paying salaries to rebel commanders as well as supplying food aid.
In synergy, the growing concern for the threat posed by ISIS and the withdrawal of direct support for the Syrian Opposition by the United States means that an expedient end to the civil war is becoming less and less likely. In the coming days, official positions on the Assad Regime may be seen changing to reflect recent developments in American support on the ground.
