Political Conflict in Yemen
Political Conflict in Yemen
November 19, 2014
Kirsten Campbell - Team Member Studying the Gulf States
The Republic of Yemen, a small country at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is a critical nation in regional politics, located at the crossroads of Africa and Asia. The Arab nation has a troubling background of deepening poverty, sectarian violence, and a rising al-Qaeda presence.
In early 2011, regional tensions emerged, throwing Yemen into political turmoil. Protesters inspired by the Arab Spring uprisings, including the northern militia group known as the Houthis, rallied against the 30-year rule of President Saleh.[1] The President subsequently stepped down as part of a deal brokered by neighbouring countries, and was replaced by the incumbent President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. Following this secession of leadership, a period of political transition followed; while the government was distracted, Yemen became a major stronghold for Islamic militants and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.[2] Since, there have been continuous clashes between government forces and al-Qaeda for control in many southern regions.
In September 2014, Houthi rebels seized control of the capital city of Sana’a. With this campaign, the Houthis took control of several important ministries, the central bank, and crucial ports of entry into the country.[3] This offensive incapacitated the Yemeni state and political progress in Sana’a, demonstrating the inherent instability of the hold of the national government.
Following this offensive, Prime Minister Mohammed Basindawa resigned, and the Houthis signed a deal for a new unity government with other political parties. However, despite the formation of a new government with Houthi supporters, sworn into office on November 9th, the Houthis remain unwilling to withdraw from the capital. The rebel group objects to the new Prime Minister Khaled Bahhah and his team, claiming it does not meet the criteria agreed to in the power-sharing deal. While the initial aim of the Houthis was regional autonomy in the North, their purpose now is to create a coalition government with existing government elites.
At the same time, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has been clashing with Houthi forces that are trying to expand power in the east and south. The two groups, one Shiite and the other Sunni, fundamentally clash on sectarian grounds. The expansion of the Houthis throughout the country has unsettled Sunni tribes, some of which have alliances with the al-Qaeda wing in the country to stop the Houthi spread.[4] Last month, al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in the capital that killed 50 Houthi supporters.[5] Further, earlier in November, approximately 30 more people were killed in intense fighting between Sunni tribes and Houthi fighters in the south of the country.[6] The concern for the future is that this sectarian divide will continue to deepen, especially if the Houthis consolidate more control in government.
The Yemeni government, along with the international community, also has the same aim to break up al-Qaeda. Local tribes, the Yemeni military, and American unmanned drone attacks all support this purpose.[7]
In the end, there are three actors – the State, the Houthis, and al-Qaeda – all vying for control of the small Arab region in the heart of the Middle East. The current government does not have a strong hold on the capital, let alone the rest of the country, and militant groups are clashing in many regions throughout the nation. The political future of the country, at the moment, could move in several directions.
In order to stabilize the country, it is crucial that a stable national government be formed in Yemen, and for this to occur, it could have to involve a Houthi presence.[8] The current tensions lie between Yemeni politicians who disagree about working with the rebel group, and the Houthis who demand an even greater influence. It is clear that any new government formed will have to deal with both internal and external tensions.
In dealing with al-Qaeda, should American drone strikes continue, the State has a chance at weakening the holdings of the terrorist group. If they do not continue, however, and local forces remain divided and ineffective, al-Qaeda appears poised to consolidate their control in the southern provinces, resulting in possible calls for a separate southern state, and furthering sectarian clashes with the Houthi rebels.
