Saudi Arabian Succession
Saudi Arabian Succession
November 26, 2014
Moses Monterroza - Team Member Studying the Gulf States
Recently after the deaths of Prince Sultan and Prince Nayef, there has been a power void regarding who will succeed King Abdullah. After the creation of the Allegiance Council, a body consisting of sons and grandsons of Ibn Saud which concerns succession issues,[1]the King has appointed Prince Salman to be the heir to the throne. Rumours of Salman’s poor health, something strongly denied by the Saudi authorities[2], is becoming a cause for concern in terms of his length of rule and his overall ability. In an attempt to make the transition more smoothly, Abdullah has appointed Prince Muqrin as Deputy Crown Prince, a title that ensures Muqrin heir to the throne in the event that Abdullah passes, and King when Salman passes.
There is some speculation that the decision to make Muqrin second in line is an “attempt to increase the likelihood that a successor might eventually designate King Abdullah’s sons as heirs to the throne, in light of the king’s reportedly close relationship with Prince Muqrin.”[3] The growing division within the monarchy derives from the fact that after the death of Crown Prince Salman, the first sons of Ibn Saud will be completely finished. Thus, Princes belonging to specific family clans will want “to ensure that [their] mini-fiefdom survives his death.”[4]
The most prominent of these “mini-fiefdoms” is the Sudairi Seven, a powerful family alliance consisting of seven brothers, including Crown Prince Salman. These brothers are descendants of Hassa al-Sudairi, considered to be one of Ibd Saud’s favourite wives. However the Sudairi Seven have been reduced to only two: Prince Ahmed and Crown Prince Salman.
Reports are beginning to speculate that despite Crown Prince Salman’s diminishing health, his own sons “are pushing to [him to] retain the appearance of being the next king.” Salman has recently made a series of “official visits to Pakistan, Japan, India, the Maldives, and China, and then chaired a Council of Ministers meeting the day after he returned.”[5]
In essence, the current reshuffling of princes marks a definitive division within the Saud House. Since Princes are vying for the consolidation of their sons, the monarchy is becoming increasingly decentralized.
Currently, Saudi Arabia is combating multiple internal issues. There is mass youth unemployment, approximately 60% of Saudis 20 or younger have no hope of a fulfilling job. [6] Poverty is widespread, with 70% of Saudis unable to afford a home, and 40% who are below the poverty line. [7] Moreover, Saudi Arabia has experienced the return of jihadists from Iraq and Syria[8], growing criticism of Al Saud on domestic social media[9], simmering restiveness in the Shi-dominated Eastern province[10], and a growing anti-monarchy sentiment[11]. All of these concerns coupled with the decentralization of the monarchy could result in revolution, or at least significant governmental reform.
Abdullah has already put in place social reforms which touch on women’s rights and elected councils; however they are limited and are still overshadowed by the Kings absolutism.[12] Despite the current political state of the country, its dominance in the petroleum sector and its current development plan to diversify the economy appear sound and unaffected by internal pressures.[13] However, we may see future developments democratically within the state.
