Ukraine and Poroshenko
Poroshenko at Home and Abroad
December 3, 2014
This article has been produced by the efforts of the following members:
Martin Eidenberg – Primary Article Contributor and Team Leader following Ukrainian Democracy
Cameron Torrens – Editor and Analyst following Ukrainian Democracy
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko was elected in May 2014 amidst the continuing crisis with Russia. Poroshenko, a billionaire who made his wealth in the confectionary industry, was elected on a mandate to restore peace in Ukraine’s eastern regions and to create closer ties to the European Union. His progress on both fronts can be characterized no better than a work in progress. Eastern Ukraine continues to be in a state of flux and while Ukraine has forged working relationships with Western nations, as mentioned in last week’s article, these are limited by Ukraine’s reliance on Russian natural gas.
On the home front, President Poroshenko has secured governing authority through an alliance of his bloc of supporters with those of Prime Minister Yatseniuk. Ukrainians feel that the combination of Mr. Poroshenko and Mr. Yateseniuk will prove effective as demonstrated by strong support (in the range of 60%) in a recent opinion poll. However, this support only comes from areas currently controlled by Kiev. If areas such as Crimea and some of Ukraine’s eastern regions were to be taken into account this number may well be different.
Abroad, President Poroshenko has been relatively effective in rallying support of the west but his relationship with President Vladimir Putin of Russia has, unavoidably, been problematic at best. In fact, the leaders spoke this past week for what was the first time in a month, primarily around bilateral relations and the situation in southeast Ukraine. This lack of communication during a crisis that directly involves both nations, whether President Putin admits it or not, must be considered very worrisome.
Over the course of the crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has emerged as the West’s primary communicator with Putin and has also been very active in diplomacy with Ukraine and President Poroshenko. Poroshenko has also found allies in other leaders including US President Barack Obama. Poroshenko has also highlighted Canada and Prime Minister Stephen Harper as a staunch ally as demonstrated by Poroshenko’s visit to Ottawa this past September.
Overall, President Poroshenko seems to have considerable support at home and abroad in the West. The question is whether this support can translate into positive results for the Ukrainian state and its people. Many leading experts believe that President Poroshenko is just one of many factors that can play a role in this. Most importantly, it is the combined might of the Ukrainian population that can bring about the most and longest lasting results.
