Tunisia and Risk
November 12, 2014
This article has been produced by the efforts of the following members:
Prem Ramani – Writer and researching examining Tunisian Politial Risk
Cole Abugov – Researching examining Tunisian Political Risk
Despite a decisive win for the Nidaa Tounes (Tunisian Call) party in the recent election, their victory resulted only in 85 out of 217 seats.[1] In Tunisia, bills are passed only when they have the support of at least 50% of the legislators.[2] This means that in order to implement their planned reforms, Nidaa Tounes needs to form a coalition government. The winning party has two options: form a coalition with their opponents, the Ennahdha, or join together with the smaller parties.
While it seems incomprehensible that a secular, “modernist” party would join an Islamist party, the two are not as polar opposite as one might suspect. In fact, Ennahdha is seen as one of the most transparent and democratic parties, saying, “if Nidaa Tounes calls us into a national coalition, we will accept.”[3] Regardless, there are a few key issues to consider. One of Tunisia’s main issues is terrorism and maintaining the security of its citizens.[4] Nidaa Tounes accuses Ennahdha of being soft on terrorism, especially because during their brief period of rule, Tunisia saw an increase in the number of religious violence.[5] On the other hand, Ennahdha has accused Tunisian Call of being a front for the previously corrupt, tyrannical government.[6] When Ennahdha was in power, they too needed to form a coalition called the Troika. A miserable failure, the troika had to give the reigns to an interim government. Therefore, some suggest that Nidaa Tounes’s hesitates about a coalition with the Islamists because it might associate them with the troika.[7]
Though a coalition with smaller parties seems to be the only solution, these parties are in fact more diverse and harder to formulate. Nidaa officials have suggested that they will try and form a coalition with the Popular Front, Afek Tounes, and the Free Patriotic Union (FPU)[8]. Both Nidaa and FPU are very diverse parties and except for a strong leadership, do not have a unified political philosophy. The two including Afek Tounes, support, free-markets, as does Nidaa, but this is opposed by the Popular Front. Furthermore, the leader of the FPU is a wealthy businessman whose expenditures were the reason for caps on campaign advertising.[9] To bring such a diverse group together would be incredibly difficult and would produce a shaky alliance at best.
It remains unclear as to what coalition will form out of these options, and we will probably only find out after the upcoming presidential elections at the end of November. For the sake of Tunisia’s economy, public safety, and to maintain the momentum of its democratic elections, it is essential that a coalition be able to co-operate and pass the necessary reforms to save the country but there is hope. The Nidaa supported presidential candidate is Caid el-Sebsi, prime minister of the interim government. Working under the constraints of a coalition government and with a high potential of winning,[10] Sebsi will be able to navigate the tricky waters of a Nidaa led coalition.
