Tunisia and the Run-off Election
Analysis of Tunisia and the Upcoming Run-off Election
November 23, 2014
This article has been produced by the efforts of the following members:
Troy Hilson – Primary article contributor examining Tunisian Democracy
Sabrine Elejel – Team Leader examining Tunisian Democracy
On November 23, 2014, Tunisia held its first free and open presidential election since the ousting of Ben Ali during the 2011 revolution. This election marked an important stepping stone, and some may argue the final, in Tunisia’s transition into a full-fledged democracy. Largely, the elections were peaceful, with the exceptions of polling stations on the Algerian border, which were only open for five instead of ten hours on election-day due to worries of armed militant activity in the region.[1] Early polls predicted that the results would lead to a run-off election, as no candidate would obtain a majority vote.[2] As exit polls predicted, the election would in fact give way to run-off election between Beji Essebsi and Moncef Marzouki.
Moncef Marzouki has been the incumbent president since the revolution in 2011. During his tenure, he has used an informal ruling style and emphasis on the “authority of the people”.[3] In the upcoming run-off election, it is likely that Marzouki will attempt to target the Ennahda party’s voting base, as they are much more reluctant to vote for Essebsi because of his affiliation with the previous Ben Ali regime.[4] In an interesting move, Ennahda did not enter a candidate in the presidential race, and even refused to publicly endorse any candidate, instead urging its base to vote for the candidate “who will guarantee democracy”.[5] By not publicly endorsing any candidate, Ennahda is keeping open the possibility of forming a coalition with the Nidaa Tounes party, should Essebsi win the run-off election.
While Marzouki has largely attempted to appeal to revolutionary senses, and the idea of the authority of the people, Essebsi has argued that he can restore the authority of the Tunisian state.[6] He has argued that because of his extensive experience in the Tunisian government, he has both the knowledge and capability to tackle the problems that Tunisia is facing and bring complete stability to the nation. The problem is, however, that Essebsi had worked under the Ben Ali regime, and thus many are fearful that voting for him may in fact lead to a return to an authoritarian state, leaving the efforts of those involved in the Arab Spring in vain. However, Essebsi maintains that he was not involved, nor aware of the abuses of the Ben Ali government.[7] Instead, he has presented himself as an experienced technocrat.[8]
Ultimately, the up-coming run-off election is certainly guaranteed to be close. If Essebsi is unable to convince the populace that he does not represent a return to the old regime, he is unlikely to gain the support he needs for a majority. Likewise, if Marzouki cannot appeal broadly enough to both secular and Islamist bases, he too will have difficulty in securing a majority win. Regardless of the upcoming result, Tunisia has thus far demonstrated that it is possible for a formerly dictatorial state to transition to a democracy – it simply requires strong oversight, a true desire for change, and strong political will.
