Tunisia and the Democratic Transition
Tunisia and Democratic Transition
December 3, 2014
This article has been produced by the efforts of the following members:
Cole Abugov and Troy Hilson – Main Contributors examining Tunisian Democracy
Sabrine Elejel – Team Leader examining Tunisian Democracy
This week furthered the speculation of an election victory by the Nidaa Tounes party headed by Essebsi – a Paris educated politician. The secularist party’s victory would have a series of economic implications, as the party is modernist and favours free trade and enterprise-led economic growth.[1] It is likely a reaction to the policies of the government that took over during the Arab Spring. Many of the party sympathizers are labour unions and part of the old regime.[2]
Despite this, security issues have dominated the election. The party has pledged to spend government resources on renewable energy and technology.[3] The newly formed government has to create consensus between labour leaders, employers and civil society. The government is heavy on clichés and light on specifics. Perhaps based on his European education, the promises that Essebsi proposes are reminiscent of the electoral mandate of social democratic parties of Europe.[4]
The Nidaa Tounes party is set to win a plurality of the vote. Their opposition is the Ennahda party that is closely associated with the Muslim Brotherhood that was propelled to power during the Arab Spring. Its presence goes completely against their stated mandate especially on security issues. It will be interesting to see who will fill the other parts of the coalition if the Nidaa Tounes party wants to implement its ideas. Compromise may be difficult between two parties that are strongly polarized.
The political picture may create an environment for a more autocratic rule to emerge with a pro Western ideology similar to that of the Mubarak government in Egypt before the Arab Spring. It would be suitable for business interests in the long run, but at this time it would breed instability while a party gained power. While autocratic rule would be beneficial for business interests, it would result in four years of attempted democratic transition having been for nought, and signal a return to authoritarianism that so many Tunisians fought to eliminate from their lives.
