Sustainability Concerns Related to Trans-Arctic Shipping
Primary Analyst: Philip Rokicki
Sea ice coverage within the arctic follows seasonal patterns of growth and decay; ice spreads and thickens in the fall and winter months while thinning and shrinking in the spring and summer months. However, in the past few decades, increasing global temperatures have resulted in rapid and prominent decreases in annual arctic sea ice coverage. The National Snow and Ice Data Center reported near-record low arctic sea ice in 2017 with coverage being a minimum of 4.6 million km2 and a maximum of 14.4 million km2 as compared to 1979 where sea ice coverage was at a minimum of 6.8 million km2 and a maximum of 16.63 million km.[i]
Drastic declines in arctic sea ice coverage has resulted in renewed efforts to establish viable trans-arctic shipping routes, in addition to increasing access to regional Exclusive Economic Zones.[ii] Trans-arctic shipping routes provide potential for significant distance savings; the distance between Rotterdam in the Netherlands, and Yokohama in Japan are reduced almost 40% via the Northern Sea Route as compared to the Suez Canal.[iii]
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Conditions in the arctic remain harsh and hazardous, resulting in an elevated risk for accidents, which bring about significant concern surrounding the sustainability of trans-arctic shipping. Arctic ecosystems are already under enormous strain due to climate change, and although the amount of marine traffic expected in the arctic remains quite low, any additional strain may result in significant damage. With temperatures rising in the arctic at twice the average global rate, sea ice is rapidly receding, and with it the foundations of arctic life.[iv] Ice destruction, noise pollution, and the introduction of invasive species are all concerns generated by an increase of trans-arctic shipping. However, the most significant concern surrounds the deposit of foreign pollutants.[v] Shipping vessels generate a significant amount of pollution including greenhouse gases and black carbon, in addition to garbage, sewage, grey water, etc. These foreign pollutants create immediate and long-term environmental damage further weakening the arctic ecosystem. That being said, the most substantial risk posed by trans-arctic shipping are oil spills. The financial cost associated with oil spills can be billions of dollars, in addition, oil spills have the potential to cause significant damage to the surrounding ecosystem by contaminating the food web and polluting vast stretches of coastline.[vi] Furthermore, due to the short operational season within the arctic and the generally challenging environment, there is a significant chance that if a spill occurs, it will not be fully resolved before the winter makes the location inaccessible. In addition, arctic conditions pose an elevated risk of accidents occurring; newly exposed waters are poorly charted, many channels are shallow, and ice hazards remain a significant concern even in the summer months.[vii] Moreover, the arctic remains a unique logistical challenge due to a relative lack of infrastructure and marine services. Search and rescue operations are limited, deep-sea ports are few and far between, and telecommunications support is limited.[viii] To best alleviate the risks associated with trans-arctic shipping, vessels need to follow the latest information to implement the best practices.
An increase in trans-arctic shipping requires increased attention from national and international regimes to mitigate associated risks, environmental damage and develop sustainable shipping practices. Historically, international maritime regulations were adopted in the wake of major incidents that resulted in a drastic loss of life or severe environmental damage.[ix] However, more recently, the international community has formulated a pre-emptive regulatory regime concerning trans-arctic shipping. Effective January 1, 2017, the International Maritime Organization adopted the International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code) a mandatory regulatory framework established to operate in conjunction with the convention for the Safety Life at Sea (SOLAS) and the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL).[x] The purpose of the Polar Code is to provide guidelines and regulations for safe trans-arctic shipping operating by addressing risks present in arctic waters not adequately mitigated by other international organisations or conventions. The Polar Code is divided into two subsections; Part One, which contains mandatory provisions for vessel safety measures and; Part Two, which contains mandatory provisions on pollution prevention. [xi] The Polar Code is a relatively new and untested convention whose content and scope will be subject to adaptive learning as trans-arctic shipping becomes more common.
Although trans-arctic shipping remains a risky venture, it affords considerable advantages to long-distance shipping routes and previously isolated northern communities. Significant risks remain associated with the practice; to the vessels themselves and the surrounding environment. However, mandatory pre-emptive international conventions provide some reassurance in the practice, in addition to revealing a more conscious international regime, one seeking to improve interconnection and maintain sustainability for generations to come.
[i] Sea Ice Index Min-Max Rankings. National Snow & Ice Data Center. 11/12/18. Accessed at ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis
[ii] Corbett, J. J., D. A. Lack, J. J. Winebrake, S. Harder, J. A. Silberman, and M. Gold. "Arctic Shipping Emissions Inventories and Future Scenarios." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10, no. 19 (2010): 9689.
[iii] Stephenson, Scott R., Laurence C. Smith, and John A. Agnew. "Divergent Long-Term Trajectories of Human Access to the Arctic." Nature Climate Change 1, no. 3 (2011): 157.
[iv] Canadian Electronic Library (Firm) and World Wildlife Fund (Canada). “Arctic Shipping, Avoiding Catastrophe: Managing the Risks of More Marine Traffic in Canada's Arctic Waters”. 7.
[v] Ibid. 7.
[vi] Kelly, S., E. Popova, Y. Aksenov, R. Marsh, and A. Yool. "Lagrangian Modeling of Arctic Ocean Circulation Pathways: Impact of Advection on Spread of Pollutants." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 123, no. 4 (2018): 2882.
[vii] Canadian Electronic Library and World Wildlife Fund, 7.
[viii] Kelly, Popova, Aksenov, Marsh, Yool. 2884.
[ix] Chircop, Aldo. (2016). “Sustainable arctic shipping: Are Current International Rules for Polar Shipping Sufficient?”. Journal of Ocean Technology. 39.
[x] International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code). International Maritime Organization, (2014): 1.
[xi] Chircop. 45.
